Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.745530 3.211564 3.728655 4.344390 5.057096 5.855594 6.817596
2025-12-07 1.983379 2.593948 3.345523 4.336250 5.605384 7.174040 9.257512
2025-12-14 1.509688 2.165348 3.044414 4.303611 6.054871 8.397391 11.760945
2025-12-21 1.207419 1.873124 2.832568 4.306445 6.502084 9.638168 14.440726
2025-12-28 1.077941 1.788500 2.877761 4.653457 7.456785 11.687728 18.525538
2026-01-04 0.924091 1.630170 2.775008 4.744411 8.020441 13.215310 22.024881
2026-01-11 0.802358 1.497213 2.683074 4.825353 8.561823 14.756956 25.727357
2026-01-18 0.694578 1.366042 2.568079 4.840647 8.982067 16.136850 29.320851
2026-01-25 0.599636 1.239488 2.437796 4.802395 9.292375 17.353048 32.767070
2026-02-01 0.492616 1.069386 2.198457 4.521725 9.113620 17.670668 34.632108
2026-02-08 0.418938 0.952395 2.041046 4.370787 9.151033 18.373829 37.274454
2026-02-15 0.368273 0.874430 1.948568 4.333366 9.400670 19.498690 40.843932
2026-02-22 0.341434 0.846387 1.960185 4.524291 10.162926 21.761129 47.030822
2026-03-01 0.300156 0.777884 1.874382 4.494331 10.461818 23.139672 51.626036
2026-03-08 0.264005 0.714607 1.789767 4.453432 10.730870 24.490782 56.341765
2026-03-15 0.235474 0.664651 1.727600 4.453980 11.091955 26.082187 61.776350
2026-03-22 0.229934 0.673526 1.808938 4.811520 12.334090 29.771124 72.330753
2026-03-29 0.211064 0.642579 1.785495 4.905144 12.955533 32.125008 80.118901
2026-04-05 0.193808 0.612706 1.759779 4.988616 13.563022 34.518581 88.288806
2026-04-12 0.175683 0.576616 1.711382 5.004373 14.000147 36.556417 95.848802
2026-04-19 0.157625 0.536995 1.646525 4.964869 14.286810 38.258840 102.787540
2026-04-26 0.133446 0.472962 1.500994 4.675076 13.858075 38.107876 105.030906
2026-05-03 0.116637 0.429201 1.407246 4.519222 13.775760 38.837344 109.636902